CONCEPT Definition
SITUATION Based
CONFLICT
Situation.
On 24 February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, marking a steep escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which had begun in 2014. The invasion has caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II, with more than 6.4 million Ukrainians fleeing the country and a third of the population displaced.
Tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians have died since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, and third parties estimate the losses among Russian troops are the greatest. Russian missiles and rockets fired intentionally at civilian infrastructure targets, such as the cultural heart of Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv, train stations, school, hospitals - all of them deadly and "cruel" orchestrated precisely to kill civilians.
The Ukrainian city of Mariupol is now in Russian hands, after months of bitter fighting & constant Russian shelling that destroyed almost all of the city and killed 21,000+ civilians, according to local officials. The last heroic defenders have surrendered from the AZOVSTAL complex May 19. 2022 after receiving orders to end its mission.
Evaluation & Prediction - Risk for ODESA Oblast ?
Odesa, Odesa Oblast is the last remaining major Ukraine city & vital maritime access to the Black Sea, - for trade, logistic, import & export as well as defense capabilities. Russia has secured with the occupation of Mariupol a land bridge from Luhansk (Russian border), all the way to Kherson / Crimea. Odesa Oblast has the last remaining Black Sea shoreline under Ukraine control. The Russian sponsored separatist rebel movement Transnistria on the east front of Moldova could under worst case scenario represents the final reaching target of the Russian occupation force. With Finland & Sweden joining NATO, Russia will deploy full energy in gaining enhanced control on the opposite border of Europe - the Black Sea.
Odesa / Odesa Oblast
is exposed at HIGH Risk
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